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Improving Predictions of HighLatitude Coronal Mass Ejections Throughout the Heliosphere
Author  Scolini, C.; e, Chan\; Pomoell, J.; Rodriguez, L.; Poedts, S.; 
Keywords  coronal mass ejections; forecasting; Heliosphere; modeling; parker solar probe; Solar Probe Plus 
Abstract  Predictions of the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere mostly rely on cone CME models, whose performances are optimized for locations in the ecliptic plane and at 1 AU (e.g., at Earth). Progresses in the exploration of the inner heliosphere, however, advocate the need to assess their performances at both higher latitudes and smaller heliocentric distances. In this work, we perform 3D magnetohydrodynamics simulations of artificial cone CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), investigating the performances of cone models in the case of CMEs launched at high latitudes. We compare results obtained initializing CMEs using a commonly applied approximated (Euclidean) distance relation and using a proper (great circle) distance relation. Results show that initializing highlatitude CMEs using the Euclidean approximation results in a teardropshaped CME cross section at the model inner boundary that fails in reproducing the initial shape of highlatitude cone CMEs as a circular cross section. Modeling errors arising from the use of an inappropriate distance relation at the inner boundary eventually propagate to the heliospheric domain. Errors are most prominent in simulations of highlatitude CMEs and at the location of spacecraft at high latitudes and/or small distances from the Sun, with locations impacted by the CME flanks being the most error sensitive. This work shows that the lowlatitude approximations commonly employed in cone models, if not corrected, may significantly affect CME predictions at various locations compatible with the orbit of space missions such as Parker Solar Probe, Ulysses, and Solar Orbiter. 
Year of Publication  2020 
Journal  Space Weather 
Volume  18 
Number of Pages  e02246 
Section  
Date Published  03/2020 
ISBN  
URL  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019SW002246 
DOI  10.1029/2019SW002246 